October 15, 2003

China's new space program

You've probably heard this by now, but it's not getting as much press as it deserves: after keeping the mission a secret for several years, China launched a man into space last night. Although this comes a full 42 years after the Soviet Union's first success, it's still pretty signifigant in terms of international relations, as this shows that China is about to become a more dominant member of the global community. There's even talk of a Chinese moon base.

Posted by Rick at October 15, 2003 10:53 AM
Comments

Shenzhou V? How could they pass up the opportunity to name it Combo# 12 or something. What, no rimshot?

Posted by: John at October 15, 2003 11:15 AM


A #38 with an egg roll. Tip your waitress. Try the veal.

The posting pop-up looks different. is it supposed to? No more color?

Posted by: Pat at October 15, 2003 12:01 PM


Yes Rick, the Chinese successfully put a "taikonaut" into space, and yes this makes them only the third nation to do so, but how is it that this makes them "a more dominant member of the global community"? I believe the Times of India described the launch as "a joke" and referred to it as the "Great Creep Forward". Putting a man in space does not change the fact that they have more people than anyone else, or that they have a horrendous human rights record, or the fact that their system of government survives only because they choose to ignore the key principles of their ideology in order for it to not collapse on itself. It does not change the fact that even though they have more people than anyone else they seem wholly incapable of developing indigenous, complex systems, such as automobiles, aircraft, or weapons systems. Their belligerence towards a people who have chosen their government democratically (Taiwan for those of you not versed in Far East politics) will not change when this guy comes back from space, nor will their bitter oppression of Tibet or the Falun Gong. Yes, they successfully put a man into space, and yes, they will probably successfully recover him, or at least do a good job of swapping out the original taikonaut and replacing him with a body double when they discover he died on takeoff, but their standing in the world community will not be measurably changed.

Posted by: Mike at October 15, 2003 12:10 PM


Oh yes, and Rick, the reason its not getting much press is that the Chinese refuse to allow journalists anywhere near the launch site, or give press conferences or publishing releases. Most of the information was leaked by the Hong Kong press, including the name of the taikonaut, which the Chinese tried to keep secret, in order to more easily facilitate the body double switch. In yet anoter cowardly move, the Chinese scrapped their plans to telecast live the launch of Shenzhou-V in case the thing blew up. They decided their national ego was too fragile to watch the "dreams of an entire nation" go up in smoke. Dominant member of the global community indeed.

Posted by: Mike at October 15, 2003 12:36 PM


It's because of their failures in the last century that have caused us to underestimate China's potential. I'm not saying China will become a superpower that rivals us or Britain, but rather that they will become more influential than they have in the past. A lack of a truly representative government doesn't preclude them from becoming a powerful nation -- just look at what the USSR accomplished when it was around. Also, China has made it no secret that they are modernizing their army (they have largest freestanding army in the world at almost 3 million) in order to defend their holdings in the South China Sea. The PLA is a neo-conservative army that is full of hardliners who do not negotiate well with the US (look at the EP-3 disaster from a couple of years ago). China also has a strong economy. They are the largest importer in the world yet still manage to export more than they import, leaving them with vast reserves of currency -- the stability that comes from that allows for the possibility to use their currency in the world market. And their economy has grown steadily since allowing foreign investments twenty years ago (10% per year vs. the 3% worldwide).

And yeah, their government is not objective when reporting news to it's citizens. I see this as a weakness as well. But they are a strong nation that seems to be doing well so far.

Posted by: Rick at October 15, 2003 01:10 PM


I believe that the balance of power will continue to shift in China's favor so long as they continue to export guys who know kung-fu and place these 'operatives' in movies with DMX.

Posted by: John at October 15, 2003 01:20 PM


"WHAT!!! We right heeeere."

I like to paint.

Posted by: Pat at October 15, 2003 01:43 PM


Sorry Rick, but I just can't help of envisioning Will Ferrell debating in Old School whenever you string more than 2 words together that are not monosyllabic...

Posted by: Chad at October 15, 2003 02:15 PM


Yeah, sorry 'bout that. How's this:

"Cock! Balls!"

Posted by: Rick at October 15, 2003 02:30 PM


Rick, I will stipulate the PRC has the potential to become a dominant member of the global community, but you have yet to explain how putting a man in space increases their global dominance. Yes, they have the largest free-standing army in the world, however, they maintain no dominant naval presence, and though they have more aircraft than anyone else does, their air force has not the technology, or the doctrine to become dominant, therefore, they have almost no power projection capability. You mention that they are modernizing their army, which is correct, however they are further hamstrung by the draconian discipline enforced on their soldiers, leaving their officer corps almost devoid of creativity, while the national political leadership attempts to exert total control from above.

You are also correct in saying that their economy has continued to grow, however it does so through strict protectionist trade measures, and intellectual property piracy that is so rampant as to have become normal and accepted inside the PRC.

Lastly, while bestowing superpower status upon the British is quaint, its also rather anachronistic. While I respect Britain and am thankful for their, and by their I mean Tony Blair's, support, they most certainly are not a superpower.

Posted by: Mike at October 15, 2003 02:56 PM


In the interest of not pissing off other readers, I'll keep this short. Mike, I'll agree that simply sending a man into space doesn't mean a country assumes more power, I think I failed to word my initial post correctly -- I meant it to suggest that this is a symbolic gesture put forth by the PRC that they will try for a larger international role in the future. I liken this to Pakistan's nuclear tests from a few years ago, although I think this just has more weight behind it. Okay, too much thought for today...

Posted by: Rick at October 15, 2003 03:10 PM


Well, I'll jump in here on a slightly related subject. Space flight might not just be for the super powers anymore. Burt Rutan, the same man that designed the Voyager aircraft that flew around the world non-stop non-refueling, as well as the most popular homebuilt aircraft and many other innovative aircraft designs, has thrown his hat into the ring for trying to be the first non-government entity to put a man into space. He already has much of the design and construction work done, and has chosen the company to build the rocket engine to power his space craft. This is only a sub-orbital craft, but if it's successful, it could lead to a revolution in commercial air travel.

Posted by: Fatboy at October 15, 2003 11:12 PM


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